This the special page for 2045, A Paradigm Shift Odyssey
Bedtime story
Here is the podcast. 2045 A Paradigm Shift Odyssey Part 1
This podcast describes a not so distant future where many of the problems warned about over 50 years earlier are actually beginning to receive attention - over consumption of resources, political/social/economic disequity, climate change, damage to the natural world and much more. An obscure set of articles in a small circulation eco minded magazine that explained a simple but far reaching bluepring in 2019, has helped catalyze a change something like the beginnings of a paradigm shift. But not everyone is on board. Is the Movement, flush with growing momentum, with its call for full cost accounting and setting up a National Truth, Reconciliation and Accountability process pushing its luck?
Bedtime story
Here is the podcast. 2045 A Paradigm Shift Odyssey Part 1
This podcast describes a not so distant future where many of the problems warned about over 50 years earlier are actually beginning to receive attention - over consumption of resources, political/social/economic disequity, climate change, damage to the natural world and much more. An obscure set of articles in a small circulation eco minded magazine that explained a simple but far reaching bluepring in 2019, has helped catalyze a change something like the beginnings of a paradigm shift. But not everyone is on board. Is the Movement, flush with growing momentum, with its call for full cost accounting and setting up a National Truth, Reconciliation and Accountability process pushing its luck?
Here are the transcripts to Episodes 1 and 2
Welcome to 2045 Episode 1
Climate change is more pronounced. Here in Eugene, we are a plant hardiness zone 9a moving towards 9b. Some older surfers in Santa Cruz claim the break at Middle Peak is different from 30 or 40 years ago because of sea level rise.
Its now illegal to resell thousands of homes along the east and Gulf coasts. Many homes, even some large ones have been abandoned anyway. A few people have been squatted them, a last chance to experience a free home on the beach with an ocean view.
Accommodating so many climate refugees here in Eugene and other northern locations is straining public resources.
Unprecedented demonstrations and social disruptions burst out coast to coast in the late 20's. Many of them with casualties. Observers pointed out there had been warnings of social instability in previous generations and decades such as the 60's social and equal rights activism, the Occupy Movement, Black Lives Matter, Climate Justice and Indigenous Lands activism. The discord in mainstream politics between the two major parties only added to the turbulent mix, even though both still acted on behalf of the economic system many blamed for the problems in the first place.
Those who controlled the economy and politics were either not interested in making the needed changes to a wide range of deepening social, economic, political and environmental problems, or the few who did make an effort, were unable. 2
Meanwhile, Great Power rivals Russia and China have also hit social, economic and environmental rough going in the 20's, 30's up to the present in their own unique ways. There were rumors that the four most powerful global economic and military blocks had secret agreements to leave each other alone during the troubling times.
The less well off countries of the world continue to struggle and downscale their aspirations. For generations their development strategies were costly and ill advised large scale projects imposed by the lending agencies of the rich countries. At this point, most of these projects don't fit current realities, some were abandoned even after billions were invested. In retrospect, smaller scale, decentralized, locally controlled projects would have been the better choice.
At the same time, even the wealthy countries are awkwardly retreating from much their own overbuild.
It was easier and more affordable to overbuild in the past than to maintain or repair in the present.
Countries were cutting back on military and other wasteful spending.
National, state and local budgets, with less money available, were slowly shifting to other needs like affordable housing, public transportation, preventative health care and sustainable agriculture. Many opposed these shifts while others said they were too slow and did not go far enough.
There have been more pandemics and military adventurism. As predicted, the effects of climate change are turning more people into refugees.
Even with encouraging developments in international relations, hopeful changes in government budgets and a seeming more evolving public consciousness,,,certain aspects of the momentum from the america's exceptional years continued or at least made the effort.
Investments in high tech are looking a bit uncertain. The future it was planned for was looking less and less likely. For years, hi tech, like almost everything else, driven by the profit motive and hi tech was particularly under regulated. How could the regulators figure out rules for something they didn't really understand?
The early effects, particularly artificial intelligence and what was called upwardly mobile automation went far enough to create a huge back lash, even among the professional class. Lawyers, doctors, managers, professors and many others invested in companies that ended up selling information systems that took their jobs.
Its now looking like a lot of high tech will be stranded because of public resistance and perhaps because as some suggest, the next jobs to be replaced by AI would be politicians. So the politicians, so they say, became very serious in legislating a big push back against high tech.
Many of the .01 percent are not backing off in style. Some gated communities are beginning to look like medieval fortress towns boasting fifteen foot high walls with walkways on top for guards to patrol with high tech security systems as well. Public demonstrations against the wealthy have unnerved 3 an increasing number of the gentry who have moved into these fortified compounds.
One new development in the works in Texas even has plans to put a dome over the forty home compound. All the former Nike anti missile base bunkers were sold out years ago. More and more of the really wealthy have cars that are bunkers on wheels.
And then some news about the less affluent. Reports from a town in Nebraska describe a local entrepreneur has made an effort to turn a mini warehouse project into relatively low cost place for people to live. Insulation was added to soundproof and save energy. Every so often, several units were remodeled into bathroom and showers and then every so often, several units turned into communal kitchens. A few unites were even outfitted with ping pong and board games. The project was not permitted. No one had moved in yet. But given the housing shortage, the un named city is considering a new category of residential development - micro missing middle.
If one had predicted these conditions only fifteen years earlier, they would have been called a nut or an alarmist. But the fact is, even further back in the 1960s and 70's, many researchers predicted an overextended near future, warning the planet could not support unlimited growth of consumption and people.
There was a counter culture back to the land movement in the 70's and 80's. The idea was to leave the
ill advised urban spaces behind and build healthy rural communities based on principles of care for the natural world and each other. Much has been written about that movement. Was it a success, was it a failure? That all depends.
But few would dispute the anti establishment ideals went away even if the commune in the Ozarks or Vermont did not last forever. The attraction for some kind of alternatives has grown immensely with a steepening curve in the past decades and few would have expected so many to claim a distant kinship to that back to the land era. Now, much of the back to the land interests have re gained its momentum with a lot of it relocated to suburbia.
Back Home
My own suburban property has served me well and has been a source of encouragement for many others. It provides most of the fruit and veggies for the four people living here. It has gardens and edible landscaping all over with rain water catchment and passive solar redesign. It is aesthetically beautiful and fences are down with several neighbors and nearby to make better use of properties and share resources.
This permaculture suburban transformation project was a curiosity at the start, over 40 years ago but now, many homes in the neighborhood and elsewhere in Eugene have done the same. Thirty five years ago, we started organizing bike tours to show and tell these permaculture places. We also had a big weekend permaculture event years ago at the neighborhood recreation center that was open to the public. Hundreds participated. The idea was to encourage others towards a preferred future.
Where can the credit go for so much progress moving towards a preferred future? Certainly our efforts were a big help. But likely, the biggest reason is probably the simple fact that so many people seem to understand that the glory days of the consumer culture are past and even more so, that the level of consumption and distraction from community and care for the natural world was not a good idea in the first place. 4
History was moving on. People and planet deserved better than living in a cargo cult.
We are also proud to see how our neighborhood is restoring the greenway along the river. Forty years ago, it was overgrown with invasives but now we have made great progress restoring a more natural habitat that is not only home to a growing number of native species, its also a place for people nearby to connect with the natural world.
Just about any neighborhood has allies and assets to work with for making where we live a better place for everyone. An unused city right of way was turned into cooperative garden in one neighborhood. One person decades ago in the midwest decided to invite dozens of neighbors to create an eco village. Not all participated at first but many did and now, almost all the neighbors are involved and the eco village idea has spread all over town and beyond.
Much of the work to transform the private properties and the greenway in our neighborhood was accomplished with our own River Road Earth Corp. The Earth Corp was made up of volunteers from the neighborhood, many school age from their classes and nearby faith groups. Everyone is welcome.
Kids are learning valuable life and leadership skills and even some money.
The city also has volunteer coordinators who help organize work parties in the greenway and similar enhancement projects all over town initiated by people with good ideas to improve community property and places.
Our neighborhood association has become increasingly very active over the years. There are over a dozen committees to volunteer with. We never would have thought all the work we did with the city on behalf of a new neighborhood plan thirty years ago would actually amount to much. We now have bus rapid transit, a car lane has been turned into a protected two direction bike way.
New eco friendly residential projects are going up on former parking lots creating mixed use areas so we are much closer to our ideal of a walkable neighborhood. We opposed the big capacity expansion for the interstate ring road on the north side of our neighborhood and it never did happen. Much of the money for the freeway expansion was re directed to public transportation, car share projects and bike safety.
We credit our Oregon land use laws for safeguarding nearby farm land. Those laws dated back to the 1970's. With the cost of transportation so much more, most people would not be able to afford out of season fruit and veggies. What might have become scattered suburban development on prime farm land did no happen. Instead, all the farm land remained productive, a vital part of our local and regional resilience plans.
The proverbial 100 mile diet is close to reality for many thousands of people. Many more people have home gardens. There were yard care businesses in the past for mowing and trimming properties. Those business are almost gone. Instead there are people who farm suburban properties, sharing the produce with the property owner and selling the rest.
Years ago, the effort to convert non food agriculture to food crops in the Willamette Valley took a while to make headway but conditions are different now. By far, most of the willamette valley farm land now grows food for local consumption. A near vegetarian diet is average. We cannot afford the diet heavy on animal products so many people took for granted years ago. What was at one time 5 referred to as junk food, lots of sugar, salt, oil we are not seeing as much of that now. Its too expensive for most people to buy and at the same time, we are finding there is less advertising for it and people are losing interest.
Closely related, public health researchers at the University of Oregon and elsewhere in the country with similar trends are reporting a set of findings, still in the early going, that certain diseases and health conditions related to poor diet are seeming to be less common. If more time and research bears out these early observations, the savings for society and public health could add up to billions across the nation and individuals, in their own lives would save a lot of money, too, simply with a healthy diet and not having to pay for medical care that can be avoided.
These trends in diet and public health are good examples of a concern that has slowly emerged from the periphery of economic discussion. Even 50 and more years ago, some critics of the economic system called attention to an economic practice known as external costs. No one denied it existed but few in the mainstream wanted to talk about it.
Now, there is intent by several representatives in the Oregon state legislature to propose new policies that would phase in a practice called full cost accounting. The new representatives are part of a group know as the Movement and full cost accounting is one of their most important issues.
Early critics of capitalism identified the practice of externalizing the cost as a fatal defect. And it was a problem that capitalism could not survive without. In short, externalizing the cost meant that the prices people paid for a product or service did not address the damage the product or service caused during its manufacture, its use and disposal. Externalizing the cost made everything far far cheaper than what a responsible economic system would allow.
Diet, mentioned before is a good example of how external costs work. There was little disagreement that junk food and the amounts of animal products consumed in the diet of the average American damaged one's health because those kinds of foods contributed to diabetes, coronary problems, overweight conditions, stroke and more.
And the damage done to the environment to produce those foods was also well know in the form of deforestation, water pollution, the problems of feed lots, treatment of animals, herbicides, pesticides, loss of topsoil to grow the grain the animals eat. There were even more problems like the oxygen starved dead zone at the mouth of the Mississippi River.
The price paid for those unhealthy products ignored all those problems. So public health and the environment was degraded and that meant money was needed to repair that damage. People, insurance, community well being and planet suffered that cost, not the businesses that sold the junk food and burgers. Profits depended on external costs.
External costs were essentially an immense subsidy to the economic system valued at trillions of dollars over the years and that dishonesty created an enormous distortion in the economic system. Dishonest prices gave a very inaccurate impression to consumers and was critical to encouraging overc onsumption. The economy depended on people buying stuff they didnt need simply because they could afford it. One would have thought more people would object to an 6 economic system that promoted
over consumption and using lots of resources, just because there was lots to use. 6
So now the Movement has elected representatives who are positioned to advance their agenda of repairing generations of damage humans have caused to the natural world. And external costs was only the beginning. The longer term plan included setting up a national truth, reconciliation and accountability process. Public opinion polls showed consistent growth in the Movement's approval rating.
At the same time, there remain interests with financial and political means in the US who want to regain their status and privilege and restore the full glory of capitalism and the consumer culture.
Those in the Movement say its a bit premature to say a lot about plans for a complete airing out of capitalism's sordid 200 years of rampage but a truth, reconciliation, and accountability process can bring more people on board for a preferred future and solidify the gains.
The fear about the Movement, even among many of its supporters is, they will push too far too fast against the old economy and way of life and may generate a back lash. They say the Beast is down, but not out.
Jumps in History
The Arab Spring which swept much of the Islamic world was catalyzed by a personal act of grief and desperation in a small town in Tunisia by a fellow who sold fruit and veggies from a cart in the street.
In chemistry, there is a process called titration. A given liquid fills a flask, another liquid is added in considerable amounts and nothing appears to change. But then, almost by magic, one single new drop turns the entire flask a bright color.
In permaculture there is a term called key leverage point. Thats a place in a system where a given amount of effort can have the most positive effect.
How did we arrive to this point in 2045? It seems history is moving faster than ever. An enormous amount of consciousness raising has happened in the past twenty years. We would have thought these changes would take generations If one from the past were to ask, who, what or how did this happen?
Many people would point to the rise of the Movement. The movement would not claim they came up with all its ideas and actions but they would say they did organize it all in a sensible way. The info is empowering, its practical, its scalable.
And maybe most important, good timing with some good luck. The old system just did not handle the events of the 20's and 30's very well. History is on the side of humans learning their place in the cozmic order.
But the Movement story predates the Movement.
Break 29 minute episode
A Series of Articles 7
A series of articles was written for a small circulation eco minded magazine around in 2019. The author had a BA in Geography and keen interest in system change. He had an active imagination but he also a skill at understanding and explaining the social, economic and environmental conditions of that time. Above all he was practical and encouraging.
The articles were highly critical of the consumer culture and pulled no punches with its take down of capitalism and its most cherished myths. Academics and experts in economics, theology, regional planning and sociology who read the articles, would later ask each other, why didn't I think of that? That guy hardly has an education.
The articles noted that the economic system was hard wired to be dishonest and both major political parties were servants of the system. Another key point explained how social stability depended on enough people having enough stuff and entertainment to stay distracted and docile even as they were psychologically and emotionally taken advantage of. The system referred to them as consumer.
Americans were described as living far beyond their eco logical means with eco footprints far larger than even the well off countries of western Europe and Japan while its consumer culture was identified as one of history's most remarkable and successful examples of social engineering. that benefited the well off at great and deepening expense to healthy people and healthy planet.
The author explained the concept of prioritizing time and money and even explained how to pay for the lifestyle and system changes he encouraged. Part of the article described in considerable detail how to take the message of paradigm shift to a much wider audience. The outline was sensible and practical, few people had ever seen anything like it before.
One of the most important points made in the article was that capitalism was dishonest beyond repair and its consumer culture a remarkably effective matrix of distractions that provided cover for the economic system. Together, they were the common denominators of practically every worsening environmental, social justice and economic trend and problem confronting the nation and humanity.
Next, the articles explained that thousands of progressive organizations, some local, some state, regional, national and global existed to repair or mitigate some aspect of the damage or injustice caused by capitalism and the consumer culture.
Some of those organizations counted a handful of members, others counted millions. Their points of interest included affordable housing, peace and foreign policy, labor and economic justice, health advocacy, the environment, ethics in government, civil rights, climate change, urban land use, elder issues, youth issues and much more.
The articles pointed out that while each organization had its own niche or focus, all these groups and related movements were, in fact, “on the same team.” Being on the same team meant that if those organizations coordinated with each other, they could be more effective achieving their own particular goals but also be helpful to others on the team to achieve their goals, all at the same time.
The articles emphasized the principle in permaculture called “key leverage point,” the place in a system where a given amount of thoughtful push can have the most impact.
Perhaps the most audacious call from the series of articles was a compassionate and positive push back against capitalism itself along with its consumer culture.
Putting an end to the social, economic and political abuse and domination of capitalism would help all the organizations achieve their own particular goals and ideals. All at the same time. This was the key leverage point. A victory or breakthrough for one group or issue was a shared victory for all.
Some observers pointed out many progressive organizations depended on funding from the same corporations and interests that were promoting the consumer culture and damaging the environment. If those businesses went away, so would many of the problems they cause along with much of the funding and even the need for some of the progressive organizations.
This was a supremely ironic relationship. Problems create dependent jobs.
The articles contained far more than ambitious ideas and theory. What impressed its readers as much as its simple but expansive call for action were the examples from real life of people and projects who were already creating positive alternatives to the mainstream. As the writer emphasized, a small but important set of people, all over the country, were modern day pioneers, already spending part of their time and lives in a preferred future.
One could find these pioneers in rural areas, in urban areas, in suburbia. They were transforming existing social and physical infrastructure.
How did a set of articles by an unknown writer in a small circulation magazine with the outlandish call for creating alternatives to capitalism actually help catalyze a significant beginning to paradigm shift?
The articles did attract some attention. A few years after it was published, the organizers of a well known yearly event called the Futures Conference had become aware of the series of articles and invited the author along with dozens of other writers, researchers, academics and professionals to present at the conference.
Organizers of the conference had a wide range of future assumptions themselves but the conference had no specific political agenda. The plan for the conference was simply to bring together a wide range of presenters to describe their thoughts about possible future scenarios.
The conference was well attended with a strong schedule of plenary sessions, panels, presentations, films and book signings and exhibits. A wide range of people attended from all sectors, academia, think tanks, government, business, civil society and simply the curious.
Also important, the social, economic, political and environmental conditions at the time of this conference were far different from 2020. The economy had been stalling for most of the 20's, the cost of everything was already up and going higher. Climate change was manifesting even more. There were constant demonstrations calling for someone to somehow to “do something.”
A wide range of topics, terms and opinions explored future aspects of population growth, technology, the natural world, equity, ethics, economics, carrying capacity, breakthroughs, game changers, tipping points, chaos factor, mutuality vs self interest, consent or force, trajectory and much more. 9
One speaker predicted a bright future delivered by advanced technology, if a bit on the authoritarian side while another presenter made a strong case for agrarian neo fuedalism where many would be grateful simply for food, shelter and security in exchange for being a 21st century peasant.
Several participants noted there seems to be a plateau where more income and stuff fails to bring much more sense of well being there becomes an inverse relationship between affluence and certain kinds of high value social relationships. This thinking suggests that the desirability greater affluence and convenience eventually hits a wall.
Another skeptic of growth and affluence noted that perhaps the track record of affluence might suggest to the less affluent world or even people of more modest means, to not even bother signing on to the seduction of material accumulation and so called prosperity. Better to define and seek satisfactions in life that are more self made and local to where one lives.
A comment suggested there must be a sweet spot where people and societies have enough and can recognize that point, both as individuals and society and say simply, I have enough, lets spread the wealth to others. Now its time for me to put my surplus energy into helping to others and the natural world.
Several participants described a popular topic, what might an extreme eco dictatorship look like with forced conformity to protect the natural world. Everyone would have to wear the same clothes, there would be no business based on vanity and excess. For example, people found participating in some kind of underground fashion show would be punished by having to wear those clothes so all could see, a sort of public shameing.
A presenter from South America who, remarkably, maintained a comparatively subsistence lifestyle with others suggested a sort of inverse peace corps where people from less affluent and more agrarian cooperative cultures could live in American neighborhoods to teach the residents about cooperation, compassion and connecting to the natural world.
Capitalism was described as economics on amphetamines that would not do well with withdrawl. It is not calibrated for moderation.
The Great Lakes were predicted to be the center of a new Midwest migration destination with fresh water, temperatures typical of Missouri 50 years earlier with trade and transportation via water among lake side cities to replace declining road transportation.
One panel member expected widescale population loss of the south and south west while a fellow panelist explained why those locations would gain population thanks to advances in solar and fusion technologies to provide near unlimited electricity for air conditioning entire parts of cities.
An evening movie review was attended by hundreds and it set off a keen fascination, the story line was a group of hackers threatened to bring down the internet all over the world unless the rulers of the world made serious quantifiable progress towards solving problems like economic disequity, climate change and global eco system decline. The plot reminded some of the classic sci fi movie The Day the Earth Stood Still.
In another panel, one member described a techno, highly automated future where everyone had a 10 guaranteed income. There would be enough support to essentially provide everyone with the basics of shelter, food, health care, security, even some recreation. But in exchange, the recipients were required to have an implant to keep track of what they did and where they had been.
An audience member called out that was not so new, the government and telecommunications 10 businesses had already been doing that for decades with the old fashioned internet and cell phones.
Still another sensible but at the same time dystopian where people had a personal carbon budget they had to live within, a person might sell some of their budget to someone else so they could comsume more. For example, if a person decided to become vegetarian or not have children, they could sell their un used carbon ration to someone so they might accumulate enough for say, a plane flight to Hawaii.
An additional comment by a panel member,added, of course, an implant would record and manage the accounting to keep track of all one's carbon transactions. Automatically. This scenario did not apply to those not receiving the basic income. They might live as a freedom seekers, preferring the risks of a life of their own making, rather a life controlled by others.
On the same guaranteed income panel, another comment was made that a society controlled by high tech and corporate interests should not be allowed to force millions of people into that dark future in the first place. She added that its up to people in their own lives to take the time to work together to look after their shared interests.She added that technological innovation primarily driven by the profit motive is one of humanity's greatest risks
One of the most popular displays in the Expo was about Permaculture. Many attending were acquainted with permaculture and thought this display was a bit out of place. But this display shoed how the principles and ideals of permaculture – designing for multiple benefits, working with nature, creative use of whats available, both built and social – but also could be applied not only to food systems, as many assumed, but also in diverse ways such as social systems, urban land use and economics.
An ethicist described the irony that so much money and effort over many years was devoted to saving lives when people had become sick or disabled. Her first comments shocked many. She explained heroic efforts to keep people alive with complex medical interventions, turning some people halfway into machines to save a life. She then questioned why so many products like cars and junk food were allowed to be sold, even advertised, when we already knew they killed many thousands of people and injured millions, year after year.
If we were so caring about human life, why weren't so many products simply banned? Eliminating the damage in the first place was far more ethical and cost effective. Her observation was, saving peoples' lives was not so much the primary goal of all this technology, rather the goal was to invent these admittedly, near miraculous interventions primarily to make money.
Another presenter described an emerging, or as some commented, updated movement to advance conservation of resources and restoring the natural world. This emerging effort was based on young people and the underemployed, like the historic Civilian Conservation Corps and Works Progress Administration during the Great Depression. These local, so called Earth Corps did not require complicated administration. In fact they could be neighborhood based. Projects would restore eco systems such as rivers, forest, grass lands and coast. Other projects could include planting ediblc landscpaes on public property and even turning suburban yards onto food and energy production. Participants would learn valuable management and restoration skills they could turn into a career. Those trained in permaculture and indigenous land use would be called on to help direct this effort.
The presenter ended by noting, some cities, towns and neighborhoods were already creaiting their own local earth corps.
Yet another speaker described a humane, realistic, positive, practical, empowering approach to what he called, a preferred future. His presentation offered a basic blueprint for social transformation based on the wisdom of the world's great spiritual traditions. This wisdom was a gateway to ideals, principles and empowering actions people could put to use in their own lives, homes and neighorhoods.
People and groups could take initiative with no permission or policy required. The idea of the double benefit stunned many in its simplicty and common sense. Why was this idea not a part of national, state and local priority and policy.
As more people and organizations, such as 1000s of non profits and public interest groups participated in these transformations and interventions, greater benefits could be gained and more ambitious aspects of this preferred future moved into play. The show and tell of people and projects from all over the country and world already creating this preferred future left a strong impression. The speaker noted, tens of thousands of people all over the world were already residing much of time in a preferred future.
The final plenary keynote talk suggested and reminded that unlikely scenarios should not be discounted and may surprise people. They could be strikingly positive or they might be the opposite. History is full of surprises. So much in life is a matter of timing and happenstance. She used an analogy from geology. For centuries, the prevailing belief was that large changes to the surface of the planet only happened over eons of time.
But a maverick geologist around 1920 studying the channeled scablands of Eastern Washington state proposed all the exceptional erosional features clearly visible over 1000s of square miles, giant ripple marks, house sized dusty plunge pools, the parched remains of water falls that would had dwarfed Niagra, were obviously caused by immense volumes of water in a near desert landscape and were not the product of millions of years, rather they were a result of a series of catastrophic floods over only a few thousand years.
The geologist was discounted, lampooned and criticized for his wild theories and dis orthodoxy He was marginalized and near banished in his area of study. Of course over the following decades his ideas, examined with improved methodologies of geo morphology, did turn out to be correct beyond doubt. The Missoula Floods have come to be recognized as one of the most remarkable episodes of accelerated changes to a regional landscape. The ice dams did break and biblical amounts of water scoured tens of thousands of square miles of landscape, leaving all those amazing erosional features.
The keynote speaker ended by saying there can be changes in the human landscape that take place at a speed few might have thought possible.
The conference ended on a sober but hopeful note. Many speakers had engaging and sensible presentations. There seemed to be fewer predictions of a bountiful, expansive future compared to previous Futures Conferences. Perhaps more participants were thinking, somehow, given the trends and seeming incapacity of political and business leadership to come up with new ideas, we are running out of time and options. A sense the coming years would be downsized in material terms and perhaps some kind of turning point in human history was shared by many. And perhaps some combination of the extenive positive content featured at the conference might somehow fit with each other and bring about some kind of accelerated change in a good way. And yes, those uplifiting examples suggesting a preferred future looked very attractive.
People took what they learned from the conference back to their homes, universities, faith groups, social and activist organizations. The preferred future scenario resonated with many points of view. The timing was good.
Welcome to 2045 Episode 1
Climate change is more pronounced. Here in Eugene, we are a plant hardiness zone 9a moving towards 9b. Some older surfers in Santa Cruz claim the break at Middle Peak is different from 30 or 40 years ago because of sea level rise.
Its now illegal to resell thousands of homes along the east and Gulf coasts. Many homes, even some large ones have been abandoned anyway. A few people have been squatted them, a last chance to experience a free home on the beach with an ocean view.
Accommodating so many climate refugees here in Eugene and other northern locations is straining public resources.
Unprecedented demonstrations and social disruptions burst out coast to coast in the late 20's. Many of them with casualties. Observers pointed out there had been warnings of social instability in previous generations and decades such as the 60's social and equal rights activism, the Occupy Movement, Black Lives Matter, Climate Justice and Indigenous Lands activism. The discord in mainstream politics between the two major parties only added to the turbulent mix, even though both still acted on behalf of the economic system many blamed for the problems in the first place.
Those who controlled the economy and politics were either not interested in making the needed changes to a wide range of deepening social, economic, political and environmental problems, or the few who did make an effort, were unable. 2
Meanwhile, Great Power rivals Russia and China have also hit social, economic and environmental rough going in the 20's, 30's up to the present in their own unique ways. There were rumors that the four most powerful global economic and military blocks had secret agreements to leave each other alone during the troubling times.
The less well off countries of the world continue to struggle and downscale their aspirations. For generations their development strategies were costly and ill advised large scale projects imposed by the lending agencies of the rich countries. At this point, most of these projects don't fit current realities, some were abandoned even after billions were invested. In retrospect, smaller scale, decentralized, locally controlled projects would have been the better choice.
At the same time, even the wealthy countries are awkwardly retreating from much their own overbuild.
It was easier and more affordable to overbuild in the past than to maintain or repair in the present.
Countries were cutting back on military and other wasteful spending.
National, state and local budgets, with less money available, were slowly shifting to other needs like affordable housing, public transportation, preventative health care and sustainable agriculture. Many opposed these shifts while others said they were too slow and did not go far enough.
There have been more pandemics and military adventurism. As predicted, the effects of climate change are turning more people into refugees.
Even with encouraging developments in international relations, hopeful changes in government budgets and a seeming more evolving public consciousness,,,certain aspects of the momentum from the america's exceptional years continued or at least made the effort.
Investments in high tech are looking a bit uncertain. The future it was planned for was looking less and less likely. For years, hi tech, like almost everything else, driven by the profit motive and hi tech was particularly under regulated. How could the regulators figure out rules for something they didn't really understand?
The early effects, particularly artificial intelligence and what was called upwardly mobile automation went far enough to create a huge back lash, even among the professional class. Lawyers, doctors, managers, professors and many others invested in companies that ended up selling information systems that took their jobs.
Its now looking like a lot of high tech will be stranded because of public resistance and perhaps because as some suggest, the next jobs to be replaced by AI would be politicians. So the politicians, so they say, became very serious in legislating a big push back against high tech.
Many of the .01 percent are not backing off in style. Some gated communities are beginning to look like medieval fortress towns boasting fifteen foot high walls with walkways on top for guards to patrol with high tech security systems as well. Public demonstrations against the wealthy have unnerved 3 an increasing number of the gentry who have moved into these fortified compounds.
One new development in the works in Texas even has plans to put a dome over the forty home compound. All the former Nike anti missile base bunkers were sold out years ago. More and more of the really wealthy have cars that are bunkers on wheels.
And then some news about the less affluent. Reports from a town in Nebraska describe a local entrepreneur has made an effort to turn a mini warehouse project into relatively low cost place for people to live. Insulation was added to soundproof and save energy. Every so often, several units were remodeled into bathroom and showers and then every so often, several units turned into communal kitchens. A few unites were even outfitted with ping pong and board games. The project was not permitted. No one had moved in yet. But given the housing shortage, the un named city is considering a new category of residential development - micro missing middle.
If one had predicted these conditions only fifteen years earlier, they would have been called a nut or an alarmist. But the fact is, even further back in the 1960s and 70's, many researchers predicted an overextended near future, warning the planet could not support unlimited growth of consumption and people.
There was a counter culture back to the land movement in the 70's and 80's. The idea was to leave the
ill advised urban spaces behind and build healthy rural communities based on principles of care for the natural world and each other. Much has been written about that movement. Was it a success, was it a failure? That all depends.
But few would dispute the anti establishment ideals went away even if the commune in the Ozarks or Vermont did not last forever. The attraction for some kind of alternatives has grown immensely with a steepening curve in the past decades and few would have expected so many to claim a distant kinship to that back to the land era. Now, much of the back to the land interests have re gained its momentum with a lot of it relocated to suburbia.
Back Home
My own suburban property has served me well and has been a source of encouragement for many others. It provides most of the fruit and veggies for the four people living here. It has gardens and edible landscaping all over with rain water catchment and passive solar redesign. It is aesthetically beautiful and fences are down with several neighbors and nearby to make better use of properties and share resources.
This permaculture suburban transformation project was a curiosity at the start, over 40 years ago but now, many homes in the neighborhood and elsewhere in Eugene have done the same. Thirty five years ago, we started organizing bike tours to show and tell these permaculture places. We also had a big weekend permaculture event years ago at the neighborhood recreation center that was open to the public. Hundreds participated. The idea was to encourage others towards a preferred future.
Where can the credit go for so much progress moving towards a preferred future? Certainly our efforts were a big help. But likely, the biggest reason is probably the simple fact that so many people seem to understand that the glory days of the consumer culture are past and even more so, that the level of consumption and distraction from community and care for the natural world was not a good idea in the first place. 4
History was moving on. People and planet deserved better than living in a cargo cult.
We are also proud to see how our neighborhood is restoring the greenway along the river. Forty years ago, it was overgrown with invasives but now we have made great progress restoring a more natural habitat that is not only home to a growing number of native species, its also a place for people nearby to connect with the natural world.
Just about any neighborhood has allies and assets to work with for making where we live a better place for everyone. An unused city right of way was turned into cooperative garden in one neighborhood. One person decades ago in the midwest decided to invite dozens of neighbors to create an eco village. Not all participated at first but many did and now, almost all the neighbors are involved and the eco village idea has spread all over town and beyond.
Much of the work to transform the private properties and the greenway in our neighborhood was accomplished with our own River Road Earth Corp. The Earth Corp was made up of volunteers from the neighborhood, many school age from their classes and nearby faith groups. Everyone is welcome.
Kids are learning valuable life and leadership skills and even some money.
The city also has volunteer coordinators who help organize work parties in the greenway and similar enhancement projects all over town initiated by people with good ideas to improve community property and places.
Our neighborhood association has become increasingly very active over the years. There are over a dozen committees to volunteer with. We never would have thought all the work we did with the city on behalf of a new neighborhood plan thirty years ago would actually amount to much. We now have bus rapid transit, a car lane has been turned into a protected two direction bike way.
New eco friendly residential projects are going up on former parking lots creating mixed use areas so we are much closer to our ideal of a walkable neighborhood. We opposed the big capacity expansion for the interstate ring road on the north side of our neighborhood and it never did happen. Much of the money for the freeway expansion was re directed to public transportation, car share projects and bike safety.
We credit our Oregon land use laws for safeguarding nearby farm land. Those laws dated back to the 1970's. With the cost of transportation so much more, most people would not be able to afford out of season fruit and veggies. What might have become scattered suburban development on prime farm land did no happen. Instead, all the farm land remained productive, a vital part of our local and regional resilience plans.
The proverbial 100 mile diet is close to reality for many thousands of people. Many more people have home gardens. There were yard care businesses in the past for mowing and trimming properties. Those business are almost gone. Instead there are people who farm suburban properties, sharing the produce with the property owner and selling the rest.
Years ago, the effort to convert non food agriculture to food crops in the Willamette Valley took a while to make headway but conditions are different now. By far, most of the willamette valley farm land now grows food for local consumption. A near vegetarian diet is average. We cannot afford the diet heavy on animal products so many people took for granted years ago. What was at one time 5 referred to as junk food, lots of sugar, salt, oil we are not seeing as much of that now. Its too expensive for most people to buy and at the same time, we are finding there is less advertising for it and people are losing interest.
Closely related, public health researchers at the University of Oregon and elsewhere in the country with similar trends are reporting a set of findings, still in the early going, that certain diseases and health conditions related to poor diet are seeming to be less common. If more time and research bears out these early observations, the savings for society and public health could add up to billions across the nation and individuals, in their own lives would save a lot of money, too, simply with a healthy diet and not having to pay for medical care that can be avoided.
These trends in diet and public health are good examples of a concern that has slowly emerged from the periphery of economic discussion. Even 50 and more years ago, some critics of the economic system called attention to an economic practice known as external costs. No one denied it existed but few in the mainstream wanted to talk about it.
Now, there is intent by several representatives in the Oregon state legislature to propose new policies that would phase in a practice called full cost accounting. The new representatives are part of a group know as the Movement and full cost accounting is one of their most important issues.
Early critics of capitalism identified the practice of externalizing the cost as a fatal defect. And it was a problem that capitalism could not survive without. In short, externalizing the cost meant that the prices people paid for a product or service did not address the damage the product or service caused during its manufacture, its use and disposal. Externalizing the cost made everything far far cheaper than what a responsible economic system would allow.
Diet, mentioned before is a good example of how external costs work. There was little disagreement that junk food and the amounts of animal products consumed in the diet of the average American damaged one's health because those kinds of foods contributed to diabetes, coronary problems, overweight conditions, stroke and more.
And the damage done to the environment to produce those foods was also well know in the form of deforestation, water pollution, the problems of feed lots, treatment of animals, herbicides, pesticides, loss of topsoil to grow the grain the animals eat. There were even more problems like the oxygen starved dead zone at the mouth of the Mississippi River.
The price paid for those unhealthy products ignored all those problems. So public health and the environment was degraded and that meant money was needed to repair that damage. People, insurance, community well being and planet suffered that cost, not the businesses that sold the junk food and burgers. Profits depended on external costs.
External costs were essentially an immense subsidy to the economic system valued at trillions of dollars over the years and that dishonesty created an enormous distortion in the economic system. Dishonest prices gave a very inaccurate impression to consumers and was critical to encouraging overc onsumption. The economy depended on people buying stuff they didnt need simply because they could afford it. One would have thought more people would object to an 6 economic system that promoted
over consumption and using lots of resources, just because there was lots to use. 6
So now the Movement has elected representatives who are positioned to advance their agenda of repairing generations of damage humans have caused to the natural world. And external costs was only the beginning. The longer term plan included setting up a national truth, reconciliation and accountability process. Public opinion polls showed consistent growth in the Movement's approval rating.
At the same time, there remain interests with financial and political means in the US who want to regain their status and privilege and restore the full glory of capitalism and the consumer culture.
Those in the Movement say its a bit premature to say a lot about plans for a complete airing out of capitalism's sordid 200 years of rampage but a truth, reconciliation, and accountability process can bring more people on board for a preferred future and solidify the gains.
The fear about the Movement, even among many of its supporters is, they will push too far too fast against the old economy and way of life and may generate a back lash. They say the Beast is down, but not out.
Jumps in History
The Arab Spring which swept much of the Islamic world was catalyzed by a personal act of grief and desperation in a small town in Tunisia by a fellow who sold fruit and veggies from a cart in the street.
In chemistry, there is a process called titration. A given liquid fills a flask, another liquid is added in considerable amounts and nothing appears to change. But then, almost by magic, one single new drop turns the entire flask a bright color.
In permaculture there is a term called key leverage point. Thats a place in a system where a given amount of effort can have the most positive effect.
How did we arrive to this point in 2045? It seems history is moving faster than ever. An enormous amount of consciousness raising has happened in the past twenty years. We would have thought these changes would take generations If one from the past were to ask, who, what or how did this happen?
Many people would point to the rise of the Movement. The movement would not claim they came up with all its ideas and actions but they would say they did organize it all in a sensible way. The info is empowering, its practical, its scalable.
And maybe most important, good timing with some good luck. The old system just did not handle the events of the 20's and 30's very well. History is on the side of humans learning their place in the cozmic order.
But the Movement story predates the Movement.
Break 29 minute episode
A Series of Articles 7
A series of articles was written for a small circulation eco minded magazine around in 2019. The author had a BA in Geography and keen interest in system change. He had an active imagination but he also a skill at understanding and explaining the social, economic and environmental conditions of that time. Above all he was practical and encouraging.
The articles were highly critical of the consumer culture and pulled no punches with its take down of capitalism and its most cherished myths. Academics and experts in economics, theology, regional planning and sociology who read the articles, would later ask each other, why didn't I think of that? That guy hardly has an education.
The articles noted that the economic system was hard wired to be dishonest and both major political parties were servants of the system. Another key point explained how social stability depended on enough people having enough stuff and entertainment to stay distracted and docile even as they were psychologically and emotionally taken advantage of. The system referred to them as consumer.
Americans were described as living far beyond their eco logical means with eco footprints far larger than even the well off countries of western Europe and Japan while its consumer culture was identified as one of history's most remarkable and successful examples of social engineering. that benefited the well off at great and deepening expense to healthy people and healthy planet.
The author explained the concept of prioritizing time and money and even explained how to pay for the lifestyle and system changes he encouraged. Part of the article described in considerable detail how to take the message of paradigm shift to a much wider audience. The outline was sensible and practical, few people had ever seen anything like it before.
One of the most important points made in the article was that capitalism was dishonest beyond repair and its consumer culture a remarkably effective matrix of distractions that provided cover for the economic system. Together, they were the common denominators of practically every worsening environmental, social justice and economic trend and problem confronting the nation and humanity.
Next, the articles explained that thousands of progressive organizations, some local, some state, regional, national and global existed to repair or mitigate some aspect of the damage or injustice caused by capitalism and the consumer culture.
Some of those organizations counted a handful of members, others counted millions. Their points of interest included affordable housing, peace and foreign policy, labor and economic justice, health advocacy, the environment, ethics in government, civil rights, climate change, urban land use, elder issues, youth issues and much more.
The articles pointed out that while each organization had its own niche or focus, all these groups and related movements were, in fact, “on the same team.” Being on the same team meant that if those organizations coordinated with each other, they could be more effective achieving their own particular goals but also be helpful to others on the team to achieve their goals, all at the same time.
The articles emphasized the principle in permaculture called “key leverage point,” the place in a system where a given amount of thoughtful push can have the most impact.
Perhaps the most audacious call from the series of articles was a compassionate and positive push back against capitalism itself along with its consumer culture.
Putting an end to the social, economic and political abuse and domination of capitalism would help all the organizations achieve their own particular goals and ideals. All at the same time. This was the key leverage point. A victory or breakthrough for one group or issue was a shared victory for all.
Some observers pointed out many progressive organizations depended on funding from the same corporations and interests that were promoting the consumer culture and damaging the environment. If those businesses went away, so would many of the problems they cause along with much of the funding and even the need for some of the progressive organizations.
This was a supremely ironic relationship. Problems create dependent jobs.
The articles contained far more than ambitious ideas and theory. What impressed its readers as much as its simple but expansive call for action were the examples from real life of people and projects who were already creating positive alternatives to the mainstream. As the writer emphasized, a small but important set of people, all over the country, were modern day pioneers, already spending part of their time and lives in a preferred future.
One could find these pioneers in rural areas, in urban areas, in suburbia. They were transforming existing social and physical infrastructure.
How did a set of articles by an unknown writer in a small circulation magazine with the outlandish call for creating alternatives to capitalism actually help catalyze a significant beginning to paradigm shift?
The articles did attract some attention. A few years after it was published, the organizers of a well known yearly event called the Futures Conference had become aware of the series of articles and invited the author along with dozens of other writers, researchers, academics and professionals to present at the conference.
Organizers of the conference had a wide range of future assumptions themselves but the conference had no specific political agenda. The plan for the conference was simply to bring together a wide range of presenters to describe their thoughts about possible future scenarios.
The conference was well attended with a strong schedule of plenary sessions, panels, presentations, films and book signings and exhibits. A wide range of people attended from all sectors, academia, think tanks, government, business, civil society and simply the curious.
Also important, the social, economic, political and environmental conditions at the time of this conference were far different from 2020. The economy had been stalling for most of the 20's, the cost of everything was already up and going higher. Climate change was manifesting even more. There were constant demonstrations calling for someone to somehow to “do something.”
A wide range of topics, terms and opinions explored future aspects of population growth, technology, the natural world, equity, ethics, economics, carrying capacity, breakthroughs, game changers, tipping points, chaos factor, mutuality vs self interest, consent or force, trajectory and much more. 9
One speaker predicted a bright future delivered by advanced technology, if a bit on the authoritarian side while another presenter made a strong case for agrarian neo fuedalism where many would be grateful simply for food, shelter and security in exchange for being a 21st century peasant.
Several participants noted there seems to be a plateau where more income and stuff fails to bring much more sense of well being there becomes an inverse relationship between affluence and certain kinds of high value social relationships. This thinking suggests that the desirability greater affluence and convenience eventually hits a wall.
Another skeptic of growth and affluence noted that perhaps the track record of affluence might suggest to the less affluent world or even people of more modest means, to not even bother signing on to the seduction of material accumulation and so called prosperity. Better to define and seek satisfactions in life that are more self made and local to where one lives.
A comment suggested there must be a sweet spot where people and societies have enough and can recognize that point, both as individuals and society and say simply, I have enough, lets spread the wealth to others. Now its time for me to put my surplus energy into helping to others and the natural world.
Several participants described a popular topic, what might an extreme eco dictatorship look like with forced conformity to protect the natural world. Everyone would have to wear the same clothes, there would be no business based on vanity and excess. For example, people found participating in some kind of underground fashion show would be punished by having to wear those clothes so all could see, a sort of public shameing.
A presenter from South America who, remarkably, maintained a comparatively subsistence lifestyle with others suggested a sort of inverse peace corps where people from less affluent and more agrarian cooperative cultures could live in American neighborhoods to teach the residents about cooperation, compassion and connecting to the natural world.
Capitalism was described as economics on amphetamines that would not do well with withdrawl. It is not calibrated for moderation.
The Great Lakes were predicted to be the center of a new Midwest migration destination with fresh water, temperatures typical of Missouri 50 years earlier with trade and transportation via water among lake side cities to replace declining road transportation.
One panel member expected widescale population loss of the south and south west while a fellow panelist explained why those locations would gain population thanks to advances in solar and fusion technologies to provide near unlimited electricity for air conditioning entire parts of cities.
An evening movie review was attended by hundreds and it set off a keen fascination, the story line was a group of hackers threatened to bring down the internet all over the world unless the rulers of the world made serious quantifiable progress towards solving problems like economic disequity, climate change and global eco system decline. The plot reminded some of the classic sci fi movie The Day the Earth Stood Still.
In another panel, one member described a techno, highly automated future where everyone had a 10 guaranteed income. There would be enough support to essentially provide everyone with the basics of shelter, food, health care, security, even some recreation. But in exchange, the recipients were required to have an implant to keep track of what they did and where they had been.
An audience member called out that was not so new, the government and telecommunications 10 businesses had already been doing that for decades with the old fashioned internet and cell phones.
Still another sensible but at the same time dystopian where people had a personal carbon budget they had to live within, a person might sell some of their budget to someone else so they could comsume more. For example, if a person decided to become vegetarian or not have children, they could sell their un used carbon ration to someone so they might accumulate enough for say, a plane flight to Hawaii.
An additional comment by a panel member,added, of course, an implant would record and manage the accounting to keep track of all one's carbon transactions. Automatically. This scenario did not apply to those not receiving the basic income. They might live as a freedom seekers, preferring the risks of a life of their own making, rather a life controlled by others.
On the same guaranteed income panel, another comment was made that a society controlled by high tech and corporate interests should not be allowed to force millions of people into that dark future in the first place. She added that its up to people in their own lives to take the time to work together to look after their shared interests.She added that technological innovation primarily driven by the profit motive is one of humanity's greatest risks
One of the most popular displays in the Expo was about Permaculture. Many attending were acquainted with permaculture and thought this display was a bit out of place. But this display shoed how the principles and ideals of permaculture – designing for multiple benefits, working with nature, creative use of whats available, both built and social – but also could be applied not only to food systems, as many assumed, but also in diverse ways such as social systems, urban land use and economics.
An ethicist described the irony that so much money and effort over many years was devoted to saving lives when people had become sick or disabled. Her first comments shocked many. She explained heroic efforts to keep people alive with complex medical interventions, turning some people halfway into machines to save a life. She then questioned why so many products like cars and junk food were allowed to be sold, even advertised, when we already knew they killed many thousands of people and injured millions, year after year.
If we were so caring about human life, why weren't so many products simply banned? Eliminating the damage in the first place was far more ethical and cost effective. Her observation was, saving peoples' lives was not so much the primary goal of all this technology, rather the goal was to invent these admittedly, near miraculous interventions primarily to make money.
Another presenter described an emerging, or as some commented, updated movement to advance conservation of resources and restoring the natural world. This emerging effort was based on young people and the underemployed, like the historic Civilian Conservation Corps and Works Progress Administration during the Great Depression. These local, so called Earth Corps did not require complicated administration. In fact they could be neighborhood based. Projects would restore eco systems such as rivers, forest, grass lands and coast. Other projects could include planting ediblc landscpaes on public property and even turning suburban yards onto food and energy production. Participants would learn valuable management and restoration skills they could turn into a career. Those trained in permaculture and indigenous land use would be called on to help direct this effort.
The presenter ended by noting, some cities, towns and neighborhoods were already creaiting their own local earth corps.
Yet another speaker described a humane, realistic, positive, practical, empowering approach to what he called, a preferred future. His presentation offered a basic blueprint for social transformation based on the wisdom of the world's great spiritual traditions. This wisdom was a gateway to ideals, principles and empowering actions people could put to use in their own lives, homes and neighorhoods.
People and groups could take initiative with no permission or policy required. The idea of the double benefit stunned many in its simplicty and common sense. Why was this idea not a part of national, state and local priority and policy.
As more people and organizations, such as 1000s of non profits and public interest groups participated in these transformations and interventions, greater benefits could be gained and more ambitious aspects of this preferred future moved into play. The show and tell of people and projects from all over the country and world already creating this preferred future left a strong impression. The speaker noted, tens of thousands of people all over the world were already residing much of time in a preferred future.
The final plenary keynote talk suggested and reminded that unlikely scenarios should not be discounted and may surprise people. They could be strikingly positive or they might be the opposite. History is full of surprises. So much in life is a matter of timing and happenstance. She used an analogy from geology. For centuries, the prevailing belief was that large changes to the surface of the planet only happened over eons of time.
But a maverick geologist around 1920 studying the channeled scablands of Eastern Washington state proposed all the exceptional erosional features clearly visible over 1000s of square miles, giant ripple marks, house sized dusty plunge pools, the parched remains of water falls that would had dwarfed Niagra, were obviously caused by immense volumes of water in a near desert landscape and were not the product of millions of years, rather they were a result of a series of catastrophic floods over only a few thousand years.
The geologist was discounted, lampooned and criticized for his wild theories and dis orthodoxy He was marginalized and near banished in his area of study. Of course over the following decades his ideas, examined with improved methodologies of geo morphology, did turn out to be correct beyond doubt. The Missoula Floods have come to be recognized as one of the most remarkable episodes of accelerated changes to a regional landscape. The ice dams did break and biblical amounts of water scoured tens of thousands of square miles of landscape, leaving all those amazing erosional features.
The keynote speaker ended by saying there can be changes in the human landscape that take place at a speed few might have thought possible.
The conference ended on a sober but hopeful note. Many speakers had engaging and sensible presentations. There seemed to be fewer predictions of a bountiful, expansive future compared to previous Futures Conferences. Perhaps more participants were thinking, somehow, given the trends and seeming incapacity of political and business leadership to come up with new ideas, we are running out of time and options. A sense the coming years would be downsized in material terms and perhaps some kind of turning point in human history was shared by many. And perhaps some combination of the extenive positive content featured at the conference might somehow fit with each other and bring about some kind of accelerated change in a good way. And yes, those uplifiting examples suggesting a preferred future looked very attractive.
People took what they learned from the conference back to their homes, universities, faith groups, social and activist organizations. The preferred future scenario resonated with many points of view. The timing was good.
Welcome to 2045 Episode 2
We started out with a variety of short reports of what life is like in 2045. There are big changes
for many people at home and in their communities. The cost for every thing is a lot more. The great powers have discrete agreements to leave each other alone during these unstable times. I describe how my own home permaculture transformation projects dating back 30 to 40 years are serving me well and there is more neighborhood cohesion here in River Road and elsewhere in the country.
There are many 1000s of people leaving the south because of climate change. Some compared the movement to the famous book, the Grapes of Wrath. Finding places for them to live is a challenge in many northern cities like Eugene.
At the same time, more people are coming to realize the climate change, increased cost of living, social and economic disruptions to every day life over the past 10 to 20 years is the fault of the dishonest economic system they all grew up with. And they could thank themselves for doing so little about those problems for so many years. Many lamented, too many distractions – football games, time at the mall, 200 channels to choose from.
Virtual reality did not prepare them for the real reality.
A lot of people are asking each other, as if in a dream, are we really seeing the mythical paradigm shift? But on the other hadn, not everyone is on board.
Part 1 describes Big changes were already happening by the late 2020's. There was deepening social, economic and political disfunction no one could ignore. And then, there was the well known and respected Futures Conference. Many speakers addressed the need for a major change in direction for people, planet and economics. One particular speaker had even more detail and insight describing simple yet expansive actions people and organizations could take for helping bring about a deep paradigm shift.
The timing was right. For generations, there had been an ecological and social fringe calling for humans to fit within the boundaries of the natural world and focus on building community solidarity as primary goals at scale from personal to society. By 2030, Their numbers were increasing at a steepening rate. And the 2028 Futures Conference was a big help.
But not everyone was on board. The proposed national truth, reconciliation and accountability process was considered to, essentially be capitalism on trial and those who benefited so much by that economic system did not see such a process to bode well for their interests.
We pick up after the Futures Conference where the author of those articles was well received for his presentation that greatly elevated the visibility and awareness of a simple and sensible set of actions for moving towards a preferred future.
That set of actions had gained enough momentum that it had become known, deservedly or not, as the Movement.
In part 2, we will find out why so many different groups and organizations came to support and participate in taking the message of the articles to their own members and networks and putting those action plans to work.
More preview
People took what they learned from the Futures Conference back to their homes, universities, faith groups, social and activist organizations. They were newly animated by the encouraging words from many speakers that basically pointed in the same direction – a great leap forward in human consciounsness.
That great leap forward in consciousness came with a blueprint. The speaker provided an outline of a simple basic plan that started out with a powerful but obvious observation few seemed to realize. He pointed out that virtually all the hundreds and thousands of activist and community interest groups all over the country were all on the same team simply because they were all engaged, in one way or another, in repairing the social, economic, environmental or spiritual damage caused by capitalism and the consumer culture.
The blueprint described several steps towards creating alternatives to the mainstream economy and consumer culture. The first step was simply to quit buying the products that don't fit a future where society lives within the boundaries of the natural world and strives to bring out the best in positive human potential.
A list of such products would be lengthy and a challenge for most people to adopt but emphasis was made, we have to start somewhere and a boycott of unhealthy products and services, strengthening with time, is sensible and will have positive effects even within the current system.
This boycott action, with benefits starting at the personal level, is close kin to what many would consider voluntary simplicity. The main difference being, this updated voluntary simplicity is being taken not only for personal benefit but also an action to be joined by many many others for more ambitions social, political, environmental and spiritual goals. Some people might call that a paradigm shift.
Paradigm shift was a term used to identify a deep transformation in thinking, consciousness, values and goals. Important to understand, paradigm shift can happen at the personal level. An individual, family, friends, cooperative can experience many of the benefits of a paradigm shift even at small scale.
Of course, the more people making these changes, the greater the benefits and durability of the shift.
For generations going back to the mid 20th century, books, essays, talks and conversations have described why a paradigm shift was called for, a decisive move away from the consumer culture and its damage to people and planet. Scholars in the year 2045 were keen to review and compare notes with each other about those comments and observations from years past.
Looking back from the vantage point of 2045, its easy for younger social observers to be critical of the critics of the past, asking why, with important indicators of quality of life already sloping down for many millions by the later third of the 20th century, did they have such a difficult time moving beyond capitalism and the consumer culture.
The elders of the time explained, if a person never had the experience of being on the receiving end of a lifetime of commercials and consumer frenzy, they would have a hard time understanding how and why the consumer culture lasted as long as it did. That frenzy was diffieult to ignore. It was an immersive experience. So reading the literature of social change from previous years helped those with a keen interest, including classes in recent history from middle school to college level, understand turning points of the human experiences such as the Futures Conference and emerging paradigm shift.
A look at a sample of that literature gives us a chance to see a variety of written impressions of society and the economy during the first several decades of the new century.
The consumer culture fit the definition of mania - a mental and behavior disorder defined as a state of abnormally elevated arousal, affect, and energy level when an individual or society experiences rapidly changing emotions and moods, highly influenced by surrounding stimuli.
Many people, some observers would say most, were fully captivated and drawn into the consumer culture simply because almost everyone around them were behaving like shopping and gratuitious consuming was one of the most important functions of life.
Others described the consumer culture as a cargo cult. A close relative to the western tropical pacific islanders during WW II who were awe struck by the remarkable material and technological possessions used by the troops who built the military bases on the islands as part of the effort to defeat the Japanese.
Social, cultural and scientific observers gained a steepening concern about the human impact on the natural world and human condition that was increasingly focused on consuming stuff. That was during the middle of the 20th century. Some researchers and writers focused on resources, others over population, others eco systems. Some even cautioned spiritual concerns, about humans becoming over enthralled by their own capacity to control and exploit natural systems and play god.
These worrisome conditions and concerns were mostly found in the affluent countries of the world where the typical lifestyle was resource and energy intensive. The well off, even in the less affluenct countries had the same behavior. The economies of the affluent countries were organized in a way that its society had to consume more stuff and more products so the system could repay the costs of investments in growth, built infrastructure and industrial production. Some observers described this arrangement as a ponzi scheme. More people are recruited to invest in an economic charade to repay those who have already invested.
The high level of personal consumption is what also produced the wealth that allowed the United States to afford the construct the world's largest military of ships, planes and weapons. Some observers made the claim that Americans were an exceptional people compared to the rest of the world. In a sense, thewere were correct. Americans were excpetional in the amont of resources they consumed and their capacity to turn nature into money.
Even within the mania of the consumer culture, a small but significant number of people over the decades have chosen voluntary simplicity or voluntary downsizing. To choose to live by consuming less, for eithical reasons, for environmental, social, spiritual reaons or all of the above. This voluntary simplicity movement was comparatively small in number and had their favorite books and spokespeople but as time would tell, they were the gathering vanguard of a much large surge towards paradigm shift, only a few decades later.
As the years passed, moving into the 21st century, there was growing concern about the human impact on natural systems. Climate change, and its various expressions, such as more powerful hurricanes, deeper droughts, expansive wildfires, rising sea level, refugees moved from the social and political periphery towards the mainstream.
There were many other environmental problems caused by overconsumption. Water and air pollution, habitat loss and more all worsened. Plus there were a wide range of social, economic and political problems that also were consequences of the consumer culture such as man avoidable public health issues, there was alarming concentration of political and economic power in fewer and fewer hands. Large segment of the population not included in the so called rising tide of affluence felt left out and resentful and manifested that resentment in ways that became increasingly anti social and disruptive to the broader society. Yyyyyyyyyy
For decades, even when there was widespread agreement the nation was experiencing a decline in many social, economic, political, spiritual and environmental indicators of well being, those who blamed the consumer culture and its waste of resources and near worship of excess consumption for the decline remained a small minority.
Among the policy makers and mainstream, there was a near religious belief some kind of technological break through such as fusion or renewable energy would come to the rescue so the entire culture of consumption could continue indefinitely into the future.
Like any ideology, the ideal of a consumer culture had a set of beliefs and perhaps the greatest justification for mass consumption was that it would enable practically everyone to have what they wanted and when they did, their self gratification and vanity would lead to peace and harmony. The problem, with this view was there was not enough production that would enable near limitless consumption for social well being. The planet did not have the capacity to satisfy billions of people with an every growing demand for more stuff.
Another primary criticism of a culture based on consumption was that it either down grades or denies altogether the thought that humans have a more uplifted potential and destiny where they fit within the boundaries of the natural world and their collective mission statement is to bring out the best in positive human potential. Once there is a healthy level of comfort, security and well being for everyone, then society can direct its resources to a form of uplift and social development where everyone benefits.
A critic of alternatives to life as we know it might ask, who will decide all that idealism? A response to the critic would be, who has decided and forced the values of excess and consumer culture and all its damage on billions of people. We see the results. A rational society would see the results of capitalism and the consumer culture and conclude, this is not a good idea.
Given the state of society, the economy and the environment, the rational and healthy changes called for can either originate from people in their own lives or their leaders. A quick look at the realities of the politics and policy and who controls them, all through the previous 100 years or more made quick work answering that question. The changes needed to come from people at home, their n'hoods and communities.
Moving into the later 2020's the story began to noticeably change. The mythologies of capitalism were losing their appeal to an increasing number of people. More people were, so called, falling behind while more people were becoming tired of trying to keep up. And others were beginning to realize the consumer culture was not such a great idea in the first place.
New conditions called on new explanations and solutions.
Those who were hoping for an honest and sustainable society were growing in number and looking for some kind of tipping point where a critical mass would be achieved and the paradigm shift would gather momentum.
Of course, that vague assumption was simplistic and perhaps too hopeful. But it did provide an early bonding agent to those who wanted to see a deep change in society. There was a growing number of people who were receptive to the big shift. Some people were already making big changes in their own lives, but still there was a need for a greater surge forward to take this nascent movement to the next level.
When millions of people began to understand they had far more affirmative and healthy options for how to live their lives than they realized, they began to understand they could empower themselves to figure out a way to retake control over their own lives for moving towards those option. There was no magic. There was a growing sense of possibility that had existed all along, that only needing to be recognized and acted upon.
Many people later admitted, they never really considered themselves to part of the tipping point. They thought they would join when it happened but they never considered they were the tipping point if they chose to be.
This irregular awakening was unfolding since the early days of the human experience. Thousands of years ago there were leaders, civilizations and cultures. Most had a beginning, a high point and a downslope. And eventually replaced by something else. Technology did not change that basic pattern.
Technology did raise the stakes. A society could use its cleverness and mechanical advantages to push back against the natural world but cleverness and technology, as many noted over the millennia, were no substitute for wisdom and common sense. A popular phrase that applied to humans, technology and the natural world. It was nature bats last. Nature did not have revenge in mind. Nature was simply a force with its own set of rules and when humans broke those rules, at some point, they would pay the price. When the price came due, it was impossible to miss, no matter at the personal level, the boardroom or on the job.
Nature could be generous and forgiving. How humans paid the price for their conceit had the potential to end up well for all involved.
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Many observers consider the Future Conference in 2028 as a rare seismic inflection point in recent history. The Conference featured speakers touching on a wide range of contemporary issues. All together, they struck a chord in describing how the conditions at that time could be leveraged for positive change in society, economy and lifestyle. And those changes focused mostly on people adopting a set of values, ideals and goals for themselves and society to move forward so they could begin to address the many problems of concern – urban, rural, political, ethical and more.
One speaker's presentation at the conference was essentially, a micro seminar explaining how to transform one's lifestyle at home, the neighborhood and community. It was so simple. Not necessarily easy to make happen, but how to manifest those choices in one's life. The speaker used a term, “prioritizing time and money,” as a method or tool one could use in their own life. Sometimes simple ideas are the most profound.
A critical part of the micro seminar was describing people and projects in the real world who were already creating and living these alternatives. That was powerful. These people and groups were making creative use of existing social and built infrastructure, all over the country. Nature bats last and humans and nature can be on the same team.
The The 2028 Futures Conference will be remembered, Many modest and unlikely circumstances can turn out to have far reaching consequences. The historical timing was good, the practical and usable content was good.
The slowly rising curve of interest for creating a green and healthy future and perhaps a paradigm shift, became noticeably steeper moving into the 2030's. The Future Conference received a lot of credit but the fact was, people had been talking about these issues long before the conference. More up to date here in 2045, there is building interest in a new idea gaining traction from the Movement - a National Economic Truth, Reconciliation and Accountability Process.
Some with insider information report this would be something like putting capitalism on trial.
One of the very most important aspects of downsizing was having others to share the adventure with. Downsizing could be a bleak experience on one's own. But when friends and neighbors were in the same boat, the condition became far more bearable and for many who wrote about their experiences. It could even be fun. Downsizing, especially with others delived a variety of benefits. When the eadventure is share with others, pariticipants learn cooperation and communication skills that will serve those who learn them, througout the man years paradigm shift would require.
There was a lot to learn. A lifetime of being victim to social and economic social engineering was very difficult to admit to and very difficult to move away form. For some, that realization was depressing. Some people sought professional therapy, morose and self critical about what they now considered to be many wasted years of their life.
People who were depressed because of unwanted changes to how they lived had lots of company. Some even organized social occasions where they pretended like they were still living 30 years ago.
Changes in lifestyle, economy and culture meant changes in how people earned a living. By the later 2030's, lifestyle counseling was becoming a new and expanding part of public health. Helping people make the adjustments to a reality many never imagined.
For others, these changes were liberating and learning about creating a healthy lifestyle allowed those who chose a positive approach, to discover ways they could make up for lost time. Putting one's own progress into a larger shared context of common cause was fuel to the paradigm shift fire.
We have heard about the Futures Conference and its timely contribution towards paradigm shift. Lets take a brief closer look at the information that has helped move that shift forward.
The most important ideas and action items coming from the Futures Conference included the observation that virtually all the progressive social, environmental and public health organizations and movements all existed to repair some kind of damage caused by capitalism and the consumer culture. All these organizations were on the same team. A victory by one was a victory by all and they should be working more closely with each other.
And just as important, all the organizations should help educate their members about their kinship with all the other progressive organizations and consider themselves all part of the same effort to live within the boundaries of the natural world and to bring out the best in positive human potential.
All these organization should explain to their members that reducing eco footprints at home, in the n'hood, community and beyond is an essential part of creating a preferred future. Organizations would provide their members practical and empowering information for how and why to make changes in diet, shelter, transportation, recreation, their own lifestyles to help reduce their eco footprints. These organizations would explain how reducing eco footprints would help each organization accomplish its own particular goals and the wider benefits to society and the environment.
Each organization would explain terms like key leverage point, allies and actions in the community, prioritizing time and money, making common cause, the wisdom of the world's great spiritual traditions and other concepts that empower personal action.
Finally, the organizations would help educate their memberships by describing to them real life models and examples of people and groups putting all these positive ideas into action in both rural and urban locations such as retrofitting suburbia, creating eco villages and worker owned business, environmental restoration, neighborhood initiatives, how to run for public office, how to organize a work party, what is permaculture, and how these actions all fit into holistic strategy for moving towards a preferred future.
This blueprint was like a warm dry breeze on a foggy cool morning. Imagine the fog lifting to reveal a crisp and detailed landscape. This information provided far more clarity about what people could do in their own lives and with their friends and neighbors to create a preferred future. It helped bring about a social solidarity of shared purpose and empowerment.
These ideals and actions appealed to a wide range of interest groups because they addressed nearly all the concerns and issues those groups had interest in. People learned how to take action, they learned they were part of a larger movement, they had real life models to learn from and they had a sense of shared goals with real benefits that could manifest sooner than later.
Let's hear how and why many diverse activist groups, public interest sectors and movements found a lot to like about what came out of the Futures Conference and related sources.
People had been writing books that explained why to downsize and how going back generations, even to the early days of the industrial revolution. There have always been idealists who believed humans could live in peace and harmony with each other and nature.
The simple living movement of the 1960's and 70's maintained a modest number of enthusiasts even during the times when economic growth seemed endless. There were people who voluntarily walked away from wealth and called for modesty of lifestyle, care for self health and protecting the natural environment.
Whether new converts to smaller footprints or those already living more eco friendly, by the 2030's, there came a point when purposeful or defacto downsizing became common enough, changing diet, driving less, sharing a house with others, planting a garden, attending a work party was no longer people only on the fringe.
New social meet up groups with interest for urban homesteading, preparedness, resilience, permaculture and do it yourself skills were hatching out in places they didnt exist before and ones that had been on the margins for decades were gaining members at a steepening rate.
People were beginning to define what was a meaningful life in a different way. Few people voluntarily chose to downsize but when conditions forced them to downsize, many found the process survivable and for some, their comments were, “why didn't we do this before.” Sharing this transformation personally with others and even knowing many others you didn't know, all over the country, were also kindred spirits, made the entire adventure far more agreeable, and successful.
The ideal of moving towards a healthy and positive future goes back centuries, even millennia. What that future might look like both evolved and stayed the same. There was social, ethical and spiritual aspect that transcended time and place and there was a practical, day to day aspect of lifestyle that moved along with changes in technology and the human experience.
Human caused problems accelerated in modern times along with the benefits of human creativity and ingenuity. The most important task for moving forward became a question of defining what products of human creativity fit a changing world and what didn't. And who decides.
And there was another realm that became an enormous help for this emerging wave of downsizing the material and upsizing the mutual assistance.
While the many people who were tuning into living more local, downsized and embracing home economics, they were still modest in numbers during the 20 teens and twenties.
Faith groups found a great attraction for the preferred future because they were reminded that care for the natural world, service to the community, modesty of lifestyle, uplift of the spirit and personal accountability were their own basic ideals and principles, too. Most had never thought of that wisdom as a call to action, as a guide for taking action nor as a foundation on which to build a society and economic system
Many were also awakened to making common cause with their fellow members of other faith groups, who, as they were reminded, had more in common with each other than they took the time to realize. Many found their own faith not only reconnected but also revitalized. What good was faith without putting it to work for self, community and the natural world we all depended on? The timing was right.
And the faith groups had a lot to work with. Churches, mosques, temples all had many physical assets to assist a positive movement towards a preferred future such as places to meet and have public workshops, communications capacities, preexisting relationships and networks and for many members, presisiting personal skills useful for paradigm shift.
Neighbors of hundreds of places of worship all over the country began to see the lights on after hours. And before long, those neighbors received invitiations to participate, not to practice religion but to learn new skills and planning on behalf of a more green and peaceful commuinty and world.
Political and social conservatives were also drawn to this preferred future. They were already critical of the government and authorities and had a strong affinity for personal independence, preparedness and a do it yourself ethic. Those qualities were a good fit for downsizing footprints. Verily, many conservatives already had a personal and group belief system that fit well with preferred future ideals.
Only a small step was needed for many conservatives to not only distrust the government but to also learn how the consumer culture, which the government werved, deeply conflicted with their core opinions on many social, religious and economic issues. Downsizing eco footprints was a natural action to take. In fact, many conservatives were already taking those actions. Downsizing lead to less need for money and full time job and more time for do it yourself or even better, with do it friends and neighbors with similar world views. Many new and surprising relationships hatched out such as making common cause with 1960's minded counter culture people.
Some recalled their days with the Tea Party and a decade later, the misguided riot at the national capitol and lamented, we didn't have this preferred future as a choice back then. We could have saved a lot of time and effort if we had only realized there was no sense or future aligning ourselves with a mainstream political party, even when that part went off the rails. Historically, we had more in common with the 60's counter culture.
Participants of large, mostly self organized progressive social movements also found a lot to like with the preferred future such as Occupy enthusiasts, Black Lives Matter, Climate Justice, Me Too, Indigenous Land Rights. The preferred future was strong on social solidarity and equity. Shifting towards a preferred future was not top down, there was no central control. It was push back against the mainstream system and either overtly or by spirit and intent, addressed almost all the issues of each of the self organized movements.
Plus, the preferred future ideal clearly linked all these groups together, there were a wide range of overlapping interests.
Both labor unions and pro labor activist came to appreciate the preferred future even though the preferred future identified many jobs of the mainstream economy would not likely fit in a preferred future. The fact was, many workers in the old paradigm did not even like their jobs.
Their loyalty was more to a pay check and less what the job was about. When they realized so many jobs were causing so many social, health and environmental problems, letting go of those jobs became a lot easier.
Perhaps even more important was the shift in thinking, maybe downsizing is a really good idea for many reasons. There would be less want to buy more stuff and less need to spend so much time working for money and that leaves more time for developing personal intersts, family, friends and community participation.
Many jobs could transition to a less robust economy as well. Mechanics, repair, agriculture, management, information, education. Councilors and therapists were needed to help people transition to a rapidly changing world.
Many working class people appreciated the take down of capitalism. Pushing back on a system many felt was unfair, for much of the lives felt like some kind of revenge. A sort of pay back for over a century of abuse but especially they liked the ideas about political and economic democracy, especially worker ownership and cooperatives. The idea of being a part owner and decision maker appealed to many.
Health Care
Health care was an industry that repaired a lot of damage. And much of that damage was completely unnecessary One of the most profound observations explained at the Futures Conference was that millions of jobs existed to repair the damage caused by the products and services of millions of other jobs. Many products caused injury to people and planet like cars, junk food and oil. Each of those industries employed many many support industries and jobs.
Cars and pollution damaged public health. No one denied that. There were accidents, air and water pollution. A stretch of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, home to dozens of petrochemical complexes, was known as cancer ally. Oil production, spills and leaks damaged the natural world and public health.
Junk food was another source of employment because unhealthy food lead to many health problems related to being over weight and poor nutrition such as diabetes, coronary problems, cancer, the list goes on. It was no secret many jobs in health care would be lost if people ate more healthy and if there were fewer cars and less need for oil.
Moving towards a healthier society would mean a lot less avoidable damage to people and that meant a lot less need for so many health care workers. Reconciling jobs and public health was a challenge.
Many millions of jobs actually depended on other people making bad choices with how they spent their money. And even more remarkably, hundreds of thousands of people had jobs that encouraged people to make unhealthy choices with how they spent their time and money.
Still, health care workers, for the most part, were dedicated to helping to make people well no matter why. As public policy makers considered new more enlightened rules and regulations on food, transportation and other industries, most public health professionals were supportive. Better to have healthier people even if it meant there was less need for so many jobs in clinics and hospitals.
Even with the prospects of a downsizing need for health care workers, most were glad to work 25 or 30 hours a week instead of 40 or 50, especially when having more time of their own allowed them to take on projects at home or in the community or family and friends they didn't have time for before. Many in the health care industry were very receptive to the ideals of a preferred future.
Another less visible group came to embrace the preferred future. This group already had misgivings about the mainstream. They were not anti technology but their primary concern was the growing threat of information mining and social control by way of technology. They were very keen to develop social and economic alternatives to protect their privacy and independence from government and business.
Downsizing lifestyles, creating less resource intensive social and cultural infrastructure, producing more basic needs at home and closer to home allowed people to reduce their “information” footprint.
There were more many entities that had expansive capacity to contribute on behalf of a transforming society.
Supporting a preferred future offered Mainstream environmental organization an enormous new expanded opportunity and responsibility to address their particular issues. They discovered assets and tools they didn't even know they had. New conditions create new opportunities. Pushing back on overconsumption would have a positive effect on almost any environmental problem from climate change to forest issues to clean water, energy and habitat.
Some environmental organizations had hundreds of members, others had thousands, a few even had millions of members. Many of their members were passionate about wildlife, natural features, clean air and water, government policy, public lands, parks and much more. When members heard from their own organizations that downsizing lifestyles and reducing eco footprings was important, that message carried weight. Untold members would take up that cause and share it with their friends.
At the same time, change came from the bottom up. Some of the big eco organizations were shy about criticism of the consumer culture, many of them received funding from the very industries that sold products that did not fit an environmentally responsible society. Tough decisions had to be made and many members scolded the leadership of the groups they supported to come clean if they moved too slow in advocating a preferred future. These environmental groups made common cause with their members and the broader society like never before.
Educational institutions, both public and private became yet another core participatnt in moving towards a sustainable future. Changing times opened the door for education to upgrade its very mission statement about its responsibilities to the public and natural world. Education became far more engaged in addressing deepening social and environmental problems within their own communities and beyond.
Many institutions had faculty and students who had been involved in a wide range of research important for society's green transformation for decades while many offered course work and degrees in studies that were a benefit to healthy people and planet. These existing realms came to be expanded.
Public and private high schools and middle schools had offered course work about the environment and civics for years. Students also had community service requirements. The changing times catalyzed discussions among school boards, teachers, parents and students that all pointed in the direction of schools taking on a greater role in community transformation.
Two other constituencies added a vital element to the preferred future movement. Many young people and elders had time and skills useful for helping create a preferred future.
Untold young people and elders had been active participants in issues, campaigns and causes over the generations but new opportunities and incentives created new participation.
The preferred future provided the young with a new understanding how to take action. Time to push back because their futures did depend on pushing back.
And many elders with no history of activism added their many skills to the effort. Asked what their motivations were in a poll, over 70% said they felt guilty for causing so many of the problems because of their resource intensive middle class lifestyles. Many said they never even thought about the damage their middle class lifestyles inflicted on the planet and the future. Time for push back.
We started out with a variety of short reports of what life is like in 2045. There are big changes
for many people at home and in their communities. The cost for every thing is a lot more. The great powers have discrete agreements to leave each other alone during these unstable times. I describe how my own home permaculture transformation projects dating back 30 to 40 years are serving me well and there is more neighborhood cohesion here in River Road and elsewhere in the country.
There are many 1000s of people leaving the south because of climate change. Some compared the movement to the famous book, the Grapes of Wrath. Finding places for them to live is a challenge in many northern cities like Eugene.
At the same time, more people are coming to realize the climate change, increased cost of living, social and economic disruptions to every day life over the past 10 to 20 years is the fault of the dishonest economic system they all grew up with. And they could thank themselves for doing so little about those problems for so many years. Many lamented, too many distractions – football games, time at the mall, 200 channels to choose from.
Virtual reality did not prepare them for the real reality.
A lot of people are asking each other, as if in a dream, are we really seeing the mythical paradigm shift? But on the other hadn, not everyone is on board.
Part 1 describes Big changes were already happening by the late 2020's. There was deepening social, economic and political disfunction no one could ignore. And then, there was the well known and respected Futures Conference. Many speakers addressed the need for a major change in direction for people, planet and economics. One particular speaker had even more detail and insight describing simple yet expansive actions people and organizations could take for helping bring about a deep paradigm shift.
The timing was right. For generations, there had been an ecological and social fringe calling for humans to fit within the boundaries of the natural world and focus on building community solidarity as primary goals at scale from personal to society. By 2030, Their numbers were increasing at a steepening rate. And the 2028 Futures Conference was a big help.
But not everyone was on board. The proposed national truth, reconciliation and accountability process was considered to, essentially be capitalism on trial and those who benefited so much by that economic system did not see such a process to bode well for their interests.
We pick up after the Futures Conference where the author of those articles was well received for his presentation that greatly elevated the visibility and awareness of a simple and sensible set of actions for moving towards a preferred future.
That set of actions had gained enough momentum that it had become known, deservedly or not, as the Movement.
In part 2, we will find out why so many different groups and organizations came to support and participate in taking the message of the articles to their own members and networks and putting those action plans to work.
More preview
People took what they learned from the Futures Conference back to their homes, universities, faith groups, social and activist organizations. They were newly animated by the encouraging words from many speakers that basically pointed in the same direction – a great leap forward in human consciounsness.
That great leap forward in consciousness came with a blueprint. The speaker provided an outline of a simple basic plan that started out with a powerful but obvious observation few seemed to realize. He pointed out that virtually all the hundreds and thousands of activist and community interest groups all over the country were all on the same team simply because they were all engaged, in one way or another, in repairing the social, economic, environmental or spiritual damage caused by capitalism and the consumer culture.
The blueprint described several steps towards creating alternatives to the mainstream economy and consumer culture. The first step was simply to quit buying the products that don't fit a future where society lives within the boundaries of the natural world and strives to bring out the best in positive human potential.
A list of such products would be lengthy and a challenge for most people to adopt but emphasis was made, we have to start somewhere and a boycott of unhealthy products and services, strengthening with time, is sensible and will have positive effects even within the current system.
This boycott action, with benefits starting at the personal level, is close kin to what many would consider voluntary simplicity. The main difference being, this updated voluntary simplicity is being taken not only for personal benefit but also an action to be joined by many many others for more ambitions social, political, environmental and spiritual goals. Some people might call that a paradigm shift.
Paradigm shift was a term used to identify a deep transformation in thinking, consciousness, values and goals. Important to understand, paradigm shift can happen at the personal level. An individual, family, friends, cooperative can experience many of the benefits of a paradigm shift even at small scale.
Of course, the more people making these changes, the greater the benefits and durability of the shift.
For generations going back to the mid 20th century, books, essays, talks and conversations have described why a paradigm shift was called for, a decisive move away from the consumer culture and its damage to people and planet. Scholars in the year 2045 were keen to review and compare notes with each other about those comments and observations from years past.
Looking back from the vantage point of 2045, its easy for younger social observers to be critical of the critics of the past, asking why, with important indicators of quality of life already sloping down for many millions by the later third of the 20th century, did they have such a difficult time moving beyond capitalism and the consumer culture.
The elders of the time explained, if a person never had the experience of being on the receiving end of a lifetime of commercials and consumer frenzy, they would have a hard time understanding how and why the consumer culture lasted as long as it did. That frenzy was diffieult to ignore. It was an immersive experience. So reading the literature of social change from previous years helped those with a keen interest, including classes in recent history from middle school to college level, understand turning points of the human experiences such as the Futures Conference and emerging paradigm shift.
A look at a sample of that literature gives us a chance to see a variety of written impressions of society and the economy during the first several decades of the new century.
The consumer culture fit the definition of mania - a mental and behavior disorder defined as a state of abnormally elevated arousal, affect, and energy level when an individual or society experiences rapidly changing emotions and moods, highly influenced by surrounding stimuli.
Many people, some observers would say most, were fully captivated and drawn into the consumer culture simply because almost everyone around them were behaving like shopping and gratuitious consuming was one of the most important functions of life.
Others described the consumer culture as a cargo cult. A close relative to the western tropical pacific islanders during WW II who were awe struck by the remarkable material and technological possessions used by the troops who built the military bases on the islands as part of the effort to defeat the Japanese.
Social, cultural and scientific observers gained a steepening concern about the human impact on the natural world and human condition that was increasingly focused on consuming stuff. That was during the middle of the 20th century. Some researchers and writers focused on resources, others over population, others eco systems. Some even cautioned spiritual concerns, about humans becoming over enthralled by their own capacity to control and exploit natural systems and play god.
These worrisome conditions and concerns were mostly found in the affluent countries of the world where the typical lifestyle was resource and energy intensive. The well off, even in the less affluenct countries had the same behavior. The economies of the affluent countries were organized in a way that its society had to consume more stuff and more products so the system could repay the costs of investments in growth, built infrastructure and industrial production. Some observers described this arrangement as a ponzi scheme. More people are recruited to invest in an economic charade to repay those who have already invested.
The high level of personal consumption is what also produced the wealth that allowed the United States to afford the construct the world's largest military of ships, planes and weapons. Some observers made the claim that Americans were an exceptional people compared to the rest of the world. In a sense, thewere were correct. Americans were excpetional in the amont of resources they consumed and their capacity to turn nature into money.
Even within the mania of the consumer culture, a small but significant number of people over the decades have chosen voluntary simplicity or voluntary downsizing. To choose to live by consuming less, for eithical reasons, for environmental, social, spiritual reaons or all of the above. This voluntary simplicity movement was comparatively small in number and had their favorite books and spokespeople but as time would tell, they were the gathering vanguard of a much large surge towards paradigm shift, only a few decades later.
As the years passed, moving into the 21st century, there was growing concern about the human impact on natural systems. Climate change, and its various expressions, such as more powerful hurricanes, deeper droughts, expansive wildfires, rising sea level, refugees moved from the social and political periphery towards the mainstream.
There were many other environmental problems caused by overconsumption. Water and air pollution, habitat loss and more all worsened. Plus there were a wide range of social, economic and political problems that also were consequences of the consumer culture such as man avoidable public health issues, there was alarming concentration of political and economic power in fewer and fewer hands. Large segment of the population not included in the so called rising tide of affluence felt left out and resentful and manifested that resentment in ways that became increasingly anti social and disruptive to the broader society. Yyyyyyyyyy
For decades, even when there was widespread agreement the nation was experiencing a decline in many social, economic, political, spiritual and environmental indicators of well being, those who blamed the consumer culture and its waste of resources and near worship of excess consumption for the decline remained a small minority.
Among the policy makers and mainstream, there was a near religious belief some kind of technological break through such as fusion or renewable energy would come to the rescue so the entire culture of consumption could continue indefinitely into the future.
Like any ideology, the ideal of a consumer culture had a set of beliefs and perhaps the greatest justification for mass consumption was that it would enable practically everyone to have what they wanted and when they did, their self gratification and vanity would lead to peace and harmony. The problem, with this view was there was not enough production that would enable near limitless consumption for social well being. The planet did not have the capacity to satisfy billions of people with an every growing demand for more stuff.
Another primary criticism of a culture based on consumption was that it either down grades or denies altogether the thought that humans have a more uplifted potential and destiny where they fit within the boundaries of the natural world and their collective mission statement is to bring out the best in positive human potential. Once there is a healthy level of comfort, security and well being for everyone, then society can direct its resources to a form of uplift and social development where everyone benefits.
A critic of alternatives to life as we know it might ask, who will decide all that idealism? A response to the critic would be, who has decided and forced the values of excess and consumer culture and all its damage on billions of people. We see the results. A rational society would see the results of capitalism and the consumer culture and conclude, this is not a good idea.
Given the state of society, the economy and the environment, the rational and healthy changes called for can either originate from people in their own lives or their leaders. A quick look at the realities of the politics and policy and who controls them, all through the previous 100 years or more made quick work answering that question. The changes needed to come from people at home, their n'hoods and communities.
Moving into the later 2020's the story began to noticeably change. The mythologies of capitalism were losing their appeal to an increasing number of people. More people were, so called, falling behind while more people were becoming tired of trying to keep up. And others were beginning to realize the consumer culture was not such a great idea in the first place.
New conditions called on new explanations and solutions.
Those who were hoping for an honest and sustainable society were growing in number and looking for some kind of tipping point where a critical mass would be achieved and the paradigm shift would gather momentum.
Of course, that vague assumption was simplistic and perhaps too hopeful. But it did provide an early bonding agent to those who wanted to see a deep change in society. There was a growing number of people who were receptive to the big shift. Some people were already making big changes in their own lives, but still there was a need for a greater surge forward to take this nascent movement to the next level.
When millions of people began to understand they had far more affirmative and healthy options for how to live their lives than they realized, they began to understand they could empower themselves to figure out a way to retake control over their own lives for moving towards those option. There was no magic. There was a growing sense of possibility that had existed all along, that only needing to be recognized and acted upon.
Many people later admitted, they never really considered themselves to part of the tipping point. They thought they would join when it happened but they never considered they were the tipping point if they chose to be.
This irregular awakening was unfolding since the early days of the human experience. Thousands of years ago there were leaders, civilizations and cultures. Most had a beginning, a high point and a downslope. And eventually replaced by something else. Technology did not change that basic pattern.
Technology did raise the stakes. A society could use its cleverness and mechanical advantages to push back against the natural world but cleverness and technology, as many noted over the millennia, were no substitute for wisdom and common sense. A popular phrase that applied to humans, technology and the natural world. It was nature bats last. Nature did not have revenge in mind. Nature was simply a force with its own set of rules and when humans broke those rules, at some point, they would pay the price. When the price came due, it was impossible to miss, no matter at the personal level, the boardroom or on the job.
Nature could be generous and forgiving. How humans paid the price for their conceit had the potential to end up well for all involved.
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Many observers consider the Future Conference in 2028 as a rare seismic inflection point in recent history. The Conference featured speakers touching on a wide range of contemporary issues. All together, they struck a chord in describing how the conditions at that time could be leveraged for positive change in society, economy and lifestyle. And those changes focused mostly on people adopting a set of values, ideals and goals for themselves and society to move forward so they could begin to address the many problems of concern – urban, rural, political, ethical and more.
One speaker's presentation at the conference was essentially, a micro seminar explaining how to transform one's lifestyle at home, the neighborhood and community. It was so simple. Not necessarily easy to make happen, but how to manifest those choices in one's life. The speaker used a term, “prioritizing time and money,” as a method or tool one could use in their own life. Sometimes simple ideas are the most profound.
A critical part of the micro seminar was describing people and projects in the real world who were already creating and living these alternatives. That was powerful. These people and groups were making creative use of existing social and built infrastructure, all over the country. Nature bats last and humans and nature can be on the same team.
The The 2028 Futures Conference will be remembered, Many modest and unlikely circumstances can turn out to have far reaching consequences. The historical timing was good, the practical and usable content was good.
The slowly rising curve of interest for creating a green and healthy future and perhaps a paradigm shift, became noticeably steeper moving into the 2030's. The Future Conference received a lot of credit but the fact was, people had been talking about these issues long before the conference. More up to date here in 2045, there is building interest in a new idea gaining traction from the Movement - a National Economic Truth, Reconciliation and Accountability Process.
Some with insider information report this would be something like putting capitalism on trial.
One of the very most important aspects of downsizing was having others to share the adventure with. Downsizing could be a bleak experience on one's own. But when friends and neighbors were in the same boat, the condition became far more bearable and for many who wrote about their experiences. It could even be fun. Downsizing, especially with others delived a variety of benefits. When the eadventure is share with others, pariticipants learn cooperation and communication skills that will serve those who learn them, througout the man years paradigm shift would require.
There was a lot to learn. A lifetime of being victim to social and economic social engineering was very difficult to admit to and very difficult to move away form. For some, that realization was depressing. Some people sought professional therapy, morose and self critical about what they now considered to be many wasted years of their life.
People who were depressed because of unwanted changes to how they lived had lots of company. Some even organized social occasions where they pretended like they were still living 30 years ago.
Changes in lifestyle, economy and culture meant changes in how people earned a living. By the later 2030's, lifestyle counseling was becoming a new and expanding part of public health. Helping people make the adjustments to a reality many never imagined.
For others, these changes were liberating and learning about creating a healthy lifestyle allowed those who chose a positive approach, to discover ways they could make up for lost time. Putting one's own progress into a larger shared context of common cause was fuel to the paradigm shift fire.
We have heard about the Futures Conference and its timely contribution towards paradigm shift. Lets take a brief closer look at the information that has helped move that shift forward.
The most important ideas and action items coming from the Futures Conference included the observation that virtually all the progressive social, environmental and public health organizations and movements all existed to repair some kind of damage caused by capitalism and the consumer culture. All these organizations were on the same team. A victory by one was a victory by all and they should be working more closely with each other.
And just as important, all the organizations should help educate their members about their kinship with all the other progressive organizations and consider themselves all part of the same effort to live within the boundaries of the natural world and to bring out the best in positive human potential.
All these organization should explain to their members that reducing eco footprints at home, in the n'hood, community and beyond is an essential part of creating a preferred future. Organizations would provide their members practical and empowering information for how and why to make changes in diet, shelter, transportation, recreation, their own lifestyles to help reduce their eco footprints. These organizations would explain how reducing eco footprints would help each organization accomplish its own particular goals and the wider benefits to society and the environment.
Each organization would explain terms like key leverage point, allies and actions in the community, prioritizing time and money, making common cause, the wisdom of the world's great spiritual traditions and other concepts that empower personal action.
Finally, the organizations would help educate their memberships by describing to them real life models and examples of people and groups putting all these positive ideas into action in both rural and urban locations such as retrofitting suburbia, creating eco villages and worker owned business, environmental restoration, neighborhood initiatives, how to run for public office, how to organize a work party, what is permaculture, and how these actions all fit into holistic strategy for moving towards a preferred future.
This blueprint was like a warm dry breeze on a foggy cool morning. Imagine the fog lifting to reveal a crisp and detailed landscape. This information provided far more clarity about what people could do in their own lives and with their friends and neighbors to create a preferred future. It helped bring about a social solidarity of shared purpose and empowerment.
These ideals and actions appealed to a wide range of interest groups because they addressed nearly all the concerns and issues those groups had interest in. People learned how to take action, they learned they were part of a larger movement, they had real life models to learn from and they had a sense of shared goals with real benefits that could manifest sooner than later.
Let's hear how and why many diverse activist groups, public interest sectors and movements found a lot to like about what came out of the Futures Conference and related sources.
People had been writing books that explained why to downsize and how going back generations, even to the early days of the industrial revolution. There have always been idealists who believed humans could live in peace and harmony with each other and nature.
The simple living movement of the 1960's and 70's maintained a modest number of enthusiasts even during the times when economic growth seemed endless. There were people who voluntarily walked away from wealth and called for modesty of lifestyle, care for self health and protecting the natural environment.
Whether new converts to smaller footprints or those already living more eco friendly, by the 2030's, there came a point when purposeful or defacto downsizing became common enough, changing diet, driving less, sharing a house with others, planting a garden, attending a work party was no longer people only on the fringe.
New social meet up groups with interest for urban homesteading, preparedness, resilience, permaculture and do it yourself skills were hatching out in places they didnt exist before and ones that had been on the margins for decades were gaining members at a steepening rate.
People were beginning to define what was a meaningful life in a different way. Few people voluntarily chose to downsize but when conditions forced them to downsize, many found the process survivable and for some, their comments were, “why didn't we do this before.” Sharing this transformation personally with others and even knowing many others you didn't know, all over the country, were also kindred spirits, made the entire adventure far more agreeable, and successful.
The ideal of moving towards a healthy and positive future goes back centuries, even millennia. What that future might look like both evolved and stayed the same. There was social, ethical and spiritual aspect that transcended time and place and there was a practical, day to day aspect of lifestyle that moved along with changes in technology and the human experience.
Human caused problems accelerated in modern times along with the benefits of human creativity and ingenuity. The most important task for moving forward became a question of defining what products of human creativity fit a changing world and what didn't. And who decides.
And there was another realm that became an enormous help for this emerging wave of downsizing the material and upsizing the mutual assistance.
While the many people who were tuning into living more local, downsized and embracing home economics, they were still modest in numbers during the 20 teens and twenties.
Faith groups found a great attraction for the preferred future because they were reminded that care for the natural world, service to the community, modesty of lifestyle, uplift of the spirit and personal accountability were their own basic ideals and principles, too. Most had never thought of that wisdom as a call to action, as a guide for taking action nor as a foundation on which to build a society and economic system
Many were also awakened to making common cause with their fellow members of other faith groups, who, as they were reminded, had more in common with each other than they took the time to realize. Many found their own faith not only reconnected but also revitalized. What good was faith without putting it to work for self, community and the natural world we all depended on? The timing was right.
And the faith groups had a lot to work with. Churches, mosques, temples all had many physical assets to assist a positive movement towards a preferred future such as places to meet and have public workshops, communications capacities, preexisting relationships and networks and for many members, presisiting personal skills useful for paradigm shift.
Neighbors of hundreds of places of worship all over the country began to see the lights on after hours. And before long, those neighbors received invitiations to participate, not to practice religion but to learn new skills and planning on behalf of a more green and peaceful commuinty and world.
Political and social conservatives were also drawn to this preferred future. They were already critical of the government and authorities and had a strong affinity for personal independence, preparedness and a do it yourself ethic. Those qualities were a good fit for downsizing footprints. Verily, many conservatives already had a personal and group belief system that fit well with preferred future ideals.
Only a small step was needed for many conservatives to not only distrust the government but to also learn how the consumer culture, which the government werved, deeply conflicted with their core opinions on many social, religious and economic issues. Downsizing eco footprints was a natural action to take. In fact, many conservatives were already taking those actions. Downsizing lead to less need for money and full time job and more time for do it yourself or even better, with do it friends and neighbors with similar world views. Many new and surprising relationships hatched out such as making common cause with 1960's minded counter culture people.
Some recalled their days with the Tea Party and a decade later, the misguided riot at the national capitol and lamented, we didn't have this preferred future as a choice back then. We could have saved a lot of time and effort if we had only realized there was no sense or future aligning ourselves with a mainstream political party, even when that part went off the rails. Historically, we had more in common with the 60's counter culture.
Participants of large, mostly self organized progressive social movements also found a lot to like with the preferred future such as Occupy enthusiasts, Black Lives Matter, Climate Justice, Me Too, Indigenous Land Rights. The preferred future was strong on social solidarity and equity. Shifting towards a preferred future was not top down, there was no central control. It was push back against the mainstream system and either overtly or by spirit and intent, addressed almost all the issues of each of the self organized movements.
Plus, the preferred future ideal clearly linked all these groups together, there were a wide range of overlapping interests.
Both labor unions and pro labor activist came to appreciate the preferred future even though the preferred future identified many jobs of the mainstream economy would not likely fit in a preferred future. The fact was, many workers in the old paradigm did not even like their jobs.
Their loyalty was more to a pay check and less what the job was about. When they realized so many jobs were causing so many social, health and environmental problems, letting go of those jobs became a lot easier.
Perhaps even more important was the shift in thinking, maybe downsizing is a really good idea for many reasons. There would be less want to buy more stuff and less need to spend so much time working for money and that leaves more time for developing personal intersts, family, friends and community participation.
Many jobs could transition to a less robust economy as well. Mechanics, repair, agriculture, management, information, education. Councilors and therapists were needed to help people transition to a rapidly changing world.
Many working class people appreciated the take down of capitalism. Pushing back on a system many felt was unfair, for much of the lives felt like some kind of revenge. A sort of pay back for over a century of abuse but especially they liked the ideas about political and economic democracy, especially worker ownership and cooperatives. The idea of being a part owner and decision maker appealed to many.
Health Care
Health care was an industry that repaired a lot of damage. And much of that damage was completely unnecessary One of the most profound observations explained at the Futures Conference was that millions of jobs existed to repair the damage caused by the products and services of millions of other jobs. Many products caused injury to people and planet like cars, junk food and oil. Each of those industries employed many many support industries and jobs.
Cars and pollution damaged public health. No one denied that. There were accidents, air and water pollution. A stretch of the Mississippi River in Louisiana, home to dozens of petrochemical complexes, was known as cancer ally. Oil production, spills and leaks damaged the natural world and public health.
Junk food was another source of employment because unhealthy food lead to many health problems related to being over weight and poor nutrition such as diabetes, coronary problems, cancer, the list goes on. It was no secret many jobs in health care would be lost if people ate more healthy and if there were fewer cars and less need for oil.
Moving towards a healthier society would mean a lot less avoidable damage to people and that meant a lot less need for so many health care workers. Reconciling jobs and public health was a challenge.
Many millions of jobs actually depended on other people making bad choices with how they spent their money. And even more remarkably, hundreds of thousands of people had jobs that encouraged people to make unhealthy choices with how they spent their time and money.
Still, health care workers, for the most part, were dedicated to helping to make people well no matter why. As public policy makers considered new more enlightened rules and regulations on food, transportation and other industries, most public health professionals were supportive. Better to have healthier people even if it meant there was less need for so many jobs in clinics and hospitals.
Even with the prospects of a downsizing need for health care workers, most were glad to work 25 or 30 hours a week instead of 40 or 50, especially when having more time of their own allowed them to take on projects at home or in the community or family and friends they didn't have time for before. Many in the health care industry were very receptive to the ideals of a preferred future.
Another less visible group came to embrace the preferred future. This group already had misgivings about the mainstream. They were not anti technology but their primary concern was the growing threat of information mining and social control by way of technology. They were very keen to develop social and economic alternatives to protect their privacy and independence from government and business.
Downsizing lifestyles, creating less resource intensive social and cultural infrastructure, producing more basic needs at home and closer to home allowed people to reduce their “information” footprint.
There were more many entities that had expansive capacity to contribute on behalf of a transforming society.
Supporting a preferred future offered Mainstream environmental organization an enormous new expanded opportunity and responsibility to address their particular issues. They discovered assets and tools they didn't even know they had. New conditions create new opportunities. Pushing back on overconsumption would have a positive effect on almost any environmental problem from climate change to forest issues to clean water, energy and habitat.
Some environmental organizations had hundreds of members, others had thousands, a few even had millions of members. Many of their members were passionate about wildlife, natural features, clean air and water, government policy, public lands, parks and much more. When members heard from their own organizations that downsizing lifestyles and reducing eco footprings was important, that message carried weight. Untold members would take up that cause and share it with their friends.
At the same time, change came from the bottom up. Some of the big eco organizations were shy about criticism of the consumer culture, many of them received funding from the very industries that sold products that did not fit an environmentally responsible society. Tough decisions had to be made and many members scolded the leadership of the groups they supported to come clean if they moved too slow in advocating a preferred future. These environmental groups made common cause with their members and the broader society like never before.
Educational institutions, both public and private became yet another core participatnt in moving towards a sustainable future. Changing times opened the door for education to upgrade its very mission statement about its responsibilities to the public and natural world. Education became far more engaged in addressing deepening social and environmental problems within their own communities and beyond.
Many institutions had faculty and students who had been involved in a wide range of research important for society's green transformation for decades while many offered course work and degrees in studies that were a benefit to healthy people and planet. These existing realms came to be expanded.
Public and private high schools and middle schools had offered course work about the environment and civics for years. Students also had community service requirements. The changing times catalyzed discussions among school boards, teachers, parents and students that all pointed in the direction of schools taking on a greater role in community transformation.
Two other constituencies added a vital element to the preferred future movement. Many young people and elders had time and skills useful for helping create a preferred future.
Untold young people and elders had been active participants in issues, campaigns and causes over the generations but new opportunities and incentives created new participation.
The preferred future provided the young with a new understanding how to take action. Time to push back because their futures did depend on pushing back.
And many elders with no history of activism added their many skills to the effort. Asked what their motivations were in a poll, over 70% said they felt guilty for causing so many of the problems because of their resource intensive middle class lifestyles. Many said they never even thought about the damage their middle class lifestyles inflicted on the planet and the future. Time for push back.